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1994-1996 Sponsored by the EU, ENVIRONMENT & CLIMATE, DG XII Introduction The project assessed the impacts of climate change on water resources in Northern Greece on a regional basis (catchment scale). The study area was the Aliakmon river basin including three sub-basins of hydrological interest located in Northern Greece. A monthly conceptual water balance model was calibrated for each sub-basin separately, using historical hydro-meteorological data. This model was applied to estimate runoff values at the outlet of each sub-basin under different climate change scenarios. Two equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050 and 2100 and one transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080 were implied. It was found that reduction of the mean annual runoff and mean winter runoff values, serious reduction of the summer runoff values, as well, would occur in all cases and basins. However, the runoff values for November, December and January were increased, whereas the spring runoff values were decreased, leading to a shifting of the wet period towards December and severe prolongation of the dry period. Moreover the results indicated that all sub-basins exhibit almost the same behaviour under different climate change scenarios, while the equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) seem to give more reasonable and consistent results than the transient scenario (UKTR). Additionally the project dealt with the climate change impacts on some critical water management issues, such as reservoir storage and hydroelectric production. Two equilibrium scenarios (UKHI, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050 and 2100 and one transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080 were applied to represent both "greenhouse" warming and induced changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. By using these scenarios, the sensitivity of the risk associated with the annual hydroelectric energy production of a large multipurpose reservoir in northern Greece has been evaluated under conditions of altered runoff. It was shown that the operational characteristics of the reservoir designed and operated under current climatic conditions are, in general affected by the climate change scenarios examined. Increases of the risks associated with the annual quantities of energy production have been observed, particularly under the UKHI and the UKTR scenarios. For the UKHI scenario, increases of reservoir storage volumes of up to about 12% and 38% are required in order to maintain at current risk levels the minimum and mean annual energy yields respectively, while for the UKTR scenario the corresponding increases are estimated to be about 25% and 50%.
Conclusions The basic conclusions drawn from this research are the following: 1. After the analysis of all results, it was found that all three basins (Venetikos, Siatista and Ilarion), exhibit almost the same behaviour under the different climate change scenarios which are concentrated:
2. The Polyfyto reservoir, designed and operated under current climatic conditions, is affected by the climate change scenarios examined. Increases of the risks associated with the annual quantities of energy production have been observed, particularly under the UKHI and the UKTR scenarios. 3. For the UKHI scenario, increases of reservoir storage volumes of up to about 12% and 38% are required in order to maintain at current risk levels the minimum and mean annual energy yields respectively, while the UKTR scenario corresponding increases were estimated to be about 25% and 50%. 4. Finally, it was also concluded that (for all sub-basins) the equilibrium scenarios UKHI and CCC give more reasonable and quite consistent results than the transient scenario UKTR. This is probably due to the shortcomings of the transient experiment. Images  Το μοντέλο υδατικού ισοζυγίου που χρησιμοποιήθηκε για την εκτίμηση των τοπικών υδρολογικών επιπτώσεων της κλιματικής αλλαγής Μέση μηνιαία απορροή στη λεκάνη του Ιλαρίωνα εκτιμημένη με την εφαρμογή των πειραμάτων εξισορρόπησης UKHI και CCC και του σεναρίου μεταβολών UKTR για την περίοδο 1990-2050 Διακινδύνευση σε σύγκριση με την ετήσια πρωτεύουσα παραγωγή ενέργειας για τον ταμιευτήρα του Πολυφύτου εφαρμόζοντας τα σενάρια για την περίοδο 1990-2050 Διακινδύνευση της ελάχιστης ετήσιας (εγγυημένης) παραγωγής ενέργειας ως συνάρτηση της αύξησης του όγκου αποθήκευσης για τον ταμιευτήρα του Πολυφύτου με την εφαρμογή των σεναρίων εξισορρόπησης UKHI και CCC και του σεναρίου μεταβολών UKTR για την περίοδο 1990-2050 Διακινδύνευση της μέσης ετήσιας (εγγυημένης) παραγωγής ενέργειας ως συνάρτηση της αύξησης του όγκου αποθήκευσης για τον ταμιευτήρα του Πολυφύτου με την εφαρμογή των σεναρίων εξισορρόπησης UKHI και CCC και του σεναρίου μεταβολών UKTR για την περίοδο 1990-2050
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